HAI Weekly Seminar with Art Owen
Variable Importance, Cohort Shapley Value, and Redlining
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Variable Importance, Cohort Shapley Value, and Redlining
The possibility that AI will automate most cognitive labor is worth taking seriously. How should we adapt to this transformation? I start from the perspective, articulated in the essay “AI as normal technology”, that the true bottlenecks lie downstream of capabilities and that AI’s impacts will unfold gradually over decades. If this is true, there are major gaps in our current evidence infrastructure, because it over-emphasizes the capability layer.
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The possibility that AI will automate most cognitive labor is worth taking seriously. How should we adapt to this transformation? I start from the perspective, articulated in the essay “AI as normal technology”, that the true bottlenecks lie downstream of capabilities and that AI’s impacts will unfold gradually over decades. If this is true, there are major gaps in our current evidence infrastructure, because it over-emphasizes the capability layer.
The AI Index, currently in its ninth year, tracks, collates, distills, and visualizes data relating to artificial intelligence.

The AI Index, currently in its ninth year, tracks, collates, distills, and visualizes data relating to artificial intelligence.
Strategic stability exists when neither side thinks it can improve its strategic outcome by striking first.

Strategic stability exists when neither side thinks it can improve its strategic outcome by striking first.
In order to explain what a black box algorithm does, Owen says, we can start by studying which variables are important for its decisions. Variable importance is studied by making hypothetical changes to predictor variables. Changing parameters one at a time can produce input combinations that are outliers or very unlikely. They can be physically impossible, or even logically impossible. It is problematic to base an explanation on outputs corresponding to impossible inputs. Owen introduces the cohort Shapley (CS) measure to avoid this problem, based on Shapley value from cooperative game theory.
There are many tradeoffs in picking a variable importance measure, so CS is not the unique reasonable choice. One interesting property of CS is that it can detect 'redlining', meaning the impact of a protected variable on an algorithm's output when that algorithm was trained without the protected variable.