HAI Weekly Seminar with Tobias Gerstenberg
Going Beyond the Here and Now: Counterfactual Simulation in Human Cognition
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Going Beyond the Here and Now: Counterfactual Simulation in Human Cognition
In the last year, AI models have rapidly improved on public benchmarks measuring their ability to carry out research tasks autonomously. Such performance suggests that models may be capable of automating parts of the AI R&D process itself, thereby accelerating the pace of AI progress.

In the last year, AI models have rapidly improved on public benchmarks measuring their ability to carry out research tasks autonomously. Such performance suggests that models may be capable of automating parts of the AI R&D process itself, thereby accelerating the pace of AI progress.
This talk will cover key insights from the third AI100 report, AI Goes Mainstream: The Scaling Era and the Rise of Generative AI, set for release in November 2026. The report was commissioned by the AI100 standing committee and led by study panel chair Michael Wooldridge.

This talk will cover key insights from the third AI100 report, AI Goes Mainstream: The Scaling Era and the Rise of Generative AI, set for release in November 2026. The report was commissioned by the AI100 standing committee and led by study panel chair Michael Wooldridge.
Sessions run Wednesdays from 4:30–5:30 PM in CoDa E160. Each session features a different Stanford speaker; talk titles are announced by the organizers.

Sessions run Wednesdays from 4:30–5:30 PM in CoDa E160. Each session features a different Stanford speaker; talk titles are announced by the organizers.
As humans, we spend much of our time going beyond the here and now. We dwell on the past, long for the future, and ponder how things could have turned out differently. In this talk, I will argue that people's knowledge of the world is organized around causally structured mental models, and that much of human thought can be understood as cognitive operations over these mental models. Specifically, I will highlight the pervasiveness of counterfactual thinking in human cognition. Counterfactuals are critical for how people make causal judgments, how they explain what happened, and how they hold others responsible for their actions.