The report documents what it calls the scaling era — the five years in which generative AI moved from research preview to a technology used daily by a substantial share of the world's population. The talk traces its findings across twelve standing questions and two deep dives, covering advances in reasoning models and agentic systems, the geopolitics of compute and data, and the contested evidence on AI's effects on work. It closes by revisiting the 2021 panel's predictions, asking why the field's own insiders underestimated how far scaling the transformer would go — and what that suggests about forecasting what comes next.
The One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence (AI100) is a longitudinal effort administered out of Stanford HAI and managed by a standing committee of AI experts from around the world, chaired by Sheila McIlraith, Professor of Computer Science at the University of Toronto. Its mission is to assess AI not as a snapshot, but as an evolving force across technical, ethical, economic, and societal domains. Every five years, we return to the same standing questions and answer them anew in a changed world.