Eyck Freymann | AI and Strategic Stability: A Framework for U.S.–China Technology Competition
Strategic stability exists when neither side thinks it can improve its strategic outcome by striking first.
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Strategic stability exists when neither side thinks it can improve its strategic outcome by striking first.
Despite the rapid adoption of LLM chatbots, little is known about how they are used. We approach this question theoretically and empirically, modeling a user who chooses whether to complete a task herself, ask the chatbot for information that reduces decision noise, or delegate execution to the chatbot...
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Despite the rapid adoption of LLM chatbots, little is known about how they are used. We approach this question theoretically and empirically, modeling a user who chooses whether to complete a task herself, ask the chatbot for information that reduces decision noise, or delegate execution to the chatbot...
AI coding agents now complete multi-hour coding benchmarks with roughly 50% reliability, yet a randomized trial found experienced open-source developers took about 19% longer when allowed frontier AI tools than when tools were disallowed...
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AI coding agents now complete multi-hour coding benchmarks with roughly 50% reliability, yet a randomized trial found experienced open-source developers took about 19% longer when allowed frontier AI tools than when tools were disallowed...
Today, strategic stability is increasingly important and potentially fragile. Nuclear weapons are no longer the only technology that threatens a state with devastation. AI competition and emergent AI capabilities could challenge strategic stability in many ways, including offensive and defensive cyber operations, sensing, ballistic missile defense, and intelligence / counterintelligence operations.
This talk will provide a detailed account of how AI, nuclear deterrence, and semiconductor interdependence jointly shape strategic stability in U.S.–China competition. From there, the seminar will make the case that AI introduces both new deterrence tools and new threats to strategic stability, especially through its effects on cyber operations, intelligence, and command-and-control.